Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $363,363$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{426,010.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 120.4)}}\) (asimptote \(426,010.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $20,901$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,846.8}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 180.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,846.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,404$ on 2020-08-25

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $211,947$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{274,125.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 150.0)}}\) (asimptote \(274,125.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,596$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(96.6 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,623.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 129.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,623.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,590$ on 2020-08-25

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,245$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(499 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,347.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 120.3)}}\) (asimptote \(43,347.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,057$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(22.9 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,369.2}{1 + 10^{-0.227 (t - 107.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,369.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,263$ on 2020-08-25

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,652$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,570.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 125.2)}}\) (asimptote \(89,570.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $642$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(16.6 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{847.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(847.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,863$ on 2020-08-25

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $81,573$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81,804.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 119.5)}}\) (asimptote \(81,804.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $519$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(80 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{486.0}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 66.9)}}\) (asimptote \(486.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,652$ on 2020-08-25

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,076$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,352.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 126.4)}}\) (asimptote \(52,352.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $186$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(7.5 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 113.4)}}\) (asimptote \(190.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,217$ on 2020-08-25

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $309,768$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{319,744.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.8)}}\) (asimptote \(319,744.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,722$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(212 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,921.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,921.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,114$ on 2020-08-25

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,460$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $859$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(91.8 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,779$ on 2020-08-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 98%
Singapore recovered 92%
Pakistan recovered 92%
Qatar recovered 92%
Kazakhstan recovered 72%
Saudi Arabia recovered 65%
Uzbekistan recovered 63%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 60%
Afghanistan recovered 59%
Japan recovered 27%
Vietnam recovered 16%
Indonesia recovered 6%
Bangladesh recovered 6%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,752$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.08 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,435.3}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84,435.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,712$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.25 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,678.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,678.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $872$ on 2020-08-25

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,435$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,561.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 113.1)}}\) (asimptote \(52,561.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(11.6 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,592$ on 2020-08-25

Pakistan⮸

Population $220,892,340$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $293,711$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,026.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.1)}}\) (asimptote \(294,026.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,255$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(748 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,369.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 80.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,369.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,031$ on 2020-08-25

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $117,498$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,858.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 93.0)}}\) (asimptote \(113,858.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $194$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(17.4 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{197.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 88.9)}}\) (asimptote \(197.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,986$ on 2020-08-25